An intervention by Xin Wang at the twenty-eighth session of the PSL Seminar (Paris - Sciences - Letters) on research in energy economics organized by Mines - ParisTech, Paris - Dauphine and Paris - Sciences - Letters, which deals with China's energy and low-carbon transition.
Overview
China published its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC on 30 June 2015. In this document, China promised to reach its CO2 emissions peak no later than 2030, educing its carbon intensity by 60–65% by 2030, relative to the 2005 level, and to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 20% by 2030. Using a simple method and official data, this article aims to explore the linkages among these three targets. The carbon emissions peak and the non-fossil fuel share of the energy mix can be considered as two main pillars of China’s post-2020 climate pledges. To understand the relation between the two targets, we use a very simple non-modelling approach to demonstrate the implications of the achievement of China’s non-fossil fuels target in terms of its carbon emissions peak and the linkage between achieving carbon intensity and non-fossil fuel targets under different growth and energy elasticity assumptions. We illustrate the relationship between the 2030 non-fossil fuels target and the carbon emissions peak, highlighting the potential inconsistency between GDP carbon intensity and non-fossil fuels targets.
