Decarbonizing China’s energy system to support the Paris climate goals

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It is worth noting that in our 1.5 °C scenarios, following the completion of the NDC requires China’s energy system to achieve carbon neutrality by approximately 2050 rather than by 2060 (compared to the literature, our scenarios suggest stronger end-use electrification in 2050 for staying well below 2 °C and earlier carbon neutrality for staying below 1.5 °C; see Table S2 online). The challenge of achieving carbon neutrality at mid-century implies that during the 14th and 15th “Five-Year Plan” periods, China could pay particular attention to pursuing ambitious near-term mitigation in accordance with national circumstances to pave the way for its carbon–neutral vision and the long-term Paris climate goals. Reaching peak CO2 emissions early could reduce China’s reliance on NETs to meet its carbon budget (Supplementary discussion section 3 online), and might also provide possibilities for China to further reduce cumulative emissions and contribute to achieving the global 1.5 °C goal.