Are younger generations higher carbon emitters than their elders? Inequalities, generations and CO2 emissions in France and the USA

Un article consacré aux déterminants – générationnels et de revenus – des consommations d'énergie des ménages, en France et aux États-Unis. Fondé sur du matériau empirique, cet article montre notamment que la génération des baby boomers (nés après la Seconde Guerre mondiale) consomme plus d'énergie et émet plus de CO₂ que les générations précédentes et suivantes ; cette tendance est plus prononcée en France qu'aux États-Unis. Par ailleurs, les émissions directes de CO₂ ne reflétant pas une relation de type courbe de Kuznets, les générations plus riches émettent plus de CO₂. Au-delà du revenu, plusieurs facteurs peuvent expliquer cette tendance générationnelle, et montrent l'importance de l'éducation et l'information pour faire évoluer les comportements.

Points clés [en anglais] :

• GENERATIONAL CHANGE AS A DRIVER OF CO₂ EMISSIONS PATTERNS

The need for sustainable and fair energy policies calls for a precise understanding of the determinants of household energy consumption—or CO₂ emissions. In this context, based on empirical material, this article is the first attempt to explore the interactions between date of birth, income and CO₂ emissions over time in France and the USA. Groups of individuals born in a given year may indeed have similar consumption patterns, and date of birth can actually drive social and behavioral change.

• BABY BOOMERS ARE HIGHER EMITTERS THAN THEIR ELDERS AND FOLLOWERS

Certain generations, like French 1935-1955 baby boomers cohorts, stand out as higher carbon emitters than others, once age and period have been controlled for. This trend, clearly observed in France and less pronounced in the USA, is the translation of significant inter-generational income inequalities. Since direct CO₂ emissions do not exhibit an environmental Kuznets curve relationship—as households become richer, direct CO2 emissions do not decrease—richer generations emit more CO₂.

• EXPLAINING THE GENERATIONAL EFFECT BEYOND INCOME

Beyond income, other factors explain these generational trends. Different rates of technology penetration among cohorts, a modification in the composition of the consumption basket and a progressive modification of value systems also play a role. In terms of public policy design, this stresses the importance of education of the young in order to curb and durably alter the consumption behavior of future cohorts, beyond energy taxation and regulatory measures.