The 20th Conference of the Parties (COP20) in Lima is the last major negotiation meeting before COP21 in 2015, at which a new global climate agreement should be achieved. As the penultimate meeting before Paris in a long and intensive negotiation process that started in 2011, Lima will be a key moment to take the pulse of the global negotiations, and indicate how they should take shape in 2015.
The political context going into Lima is reasonably positive. The three big emitters have already confirmed their engagement by announcing their key targets for the post-2020 period. In October, the EU announced the key objectives of its 2030 climate and energy package. In November, the US-China agreement on their emissions reduction also gave a significant sign of political engagement. This should give impetus to the negotiations, and will pressure other countries to advance their own emissions reduction. Another positive point are the significant pledges to the Green Climate Fund—currently standing at 9.7 billion USD, almost reaching the objective of a 10 billion USD initial capitalization—which will support climate policy in the most vulnerable countries, and are an important signal of commitment and confidence building.
These successful high politics must be followed by technical negotiations in Lima that deliver the path forward. Three key elements in Lima–strategy, rules and acceleration–will set us up well on the race to Paris.
We need a clear and precise mandate for the final stretch of the negotiations up to Paris. This should grant a strong role for the Chairs of the negotiation (notably including the production of a draft text for the agreement by May 2015) to provide a capacity synthesizing the views negotiated among the 196 Parties to the Climate Convention. The mandate should also start sketching out convergence on desired elements of the 2015 agreement. Notably, that it should be in line with the 2 degree mitigation target, driven by ambitious adaptation and finance objectives, emphasize the need for enhanced transparency and credibility of country action, and that the agreement will be strengthened over time in a regular, predictable manner.
Secondly, we need to define the rules of the race in 2015. Lima must adopt a decision on the common rules of the Intended National Determined Contributions (e.g. emissions targets) that countries will announce in the first half of 2015. To be credible, countries’ engagements must go beyond the what, to also describe how they intend to reach them (e.g. through renewable energy, energy efficiency). To put these actions in the context of the long-term transformations required, the agreement should also invite countries to submit indicative decarbonisation plans to 2050.
Thirdly, the COP20 should take a decision strengthening work in 2015 on accelerating and increasing the scale of climate action. Notably, a clear signal must be sent that non-state actors are welcome to table their concrete mitigation and adaptation initiatives. There is a particular need to make significant progress on scaling up climate finance. The Green Climate Fund pledges are a huge step forward in this direction. At Lima, a report to be adopted on global flows of climate finance will further indicate how funding is being scaled up, and the ministerial discussion will need to provide direction on this topic, specifically defining key deliverables in 2015.
Lima will also be a relevant political event in Latin America, one of the most dynamic regions in terms of its climate change politics. The region has already stated adaptation as a domestic and international priority; therefore a special accent is expected to be put on this issue during COP20.
This will also be an important opportunity for France and Europe to engage in a constructive partnership with Peru and Latin America as a means to develop a new stage in inter-region cooperation on climate change, with a positive impact in the global agenda.
COP20 Lima: Expectations and context
