Presentation
Although the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) accounts for a third of the EU budget, it is not explicitly addressed in the new framework outlined by the Commission. Similarly, the EU’s Vision for Agriculture & Food, published on 19 February, 2025, provides little detail on how the EU budget would support the proposed objectives. Given the situation, this Issue Brief analyses the opportunities and risks that the upcoming Multiannual Financial Framework negotiations present for the agrifood sector, in terms of both funding availability, instrument types, governance mechanisms, and overall objectives for the sector.
Key Messages
- Given the number of issues EU leaders aim to address in the next MFF, the CAP budget may remain stable in real terms, though a decrease appears more probable.
- In this context, the current negotiating positions of EU agricultural political leaders favour maintaining a highly stable CAP, both in terms of structure and policy instruments. This approach has two main implications:
• The CAP may well remain “outside” of the European Commission’s broader push for a more investment-based and performance-based budget;
• Existing trends would likely continue, including greater flexibility for Member States in allocating the CAP budget and a reduced level of environmental ambition.
- The CAP structure that would result from such negotiations may be insufficient to address the triple challenge of competitiveness, resilience and sustainability in the EU agrifood sector, even though these are stated objectives of the Commission, Parliament and Council. All three objectives however require careful consideration, as the long-term viability of the sector is at stake.
- This Issue Brief suggests that strengthening the EU food system’s strategic autonomy–given its critical dependence on fertilizers and feed–could provide a path out of the status quo in the next CAP budget negotiations. This would also align with the EU’s strong focus on resilience in its Vision for Agriculture and Food:
• In the medium term, the potential opportunities and benefits could outweigh the short-term costs.
• This Issue Brief further explores two critical changes in that direction and their budgetary implications: crop diversification and increased circularity in agricultural systems.
