Presentation
For NDCs to drive meaningful action on the ground, they must include short-term actions which directly address the drivers of emissions—not just emission targets—based on a long-term development perspective that identifies systemic transformations. This requires a shift in how NDCs are perceived: from ambition-binding commitments to strategic instruments that demonstrate differentiated leadership and enable international collaboration. In this context, this Policy Brief provides a framework to assess new NDCs as they come out.
Key Messages
- The ambition of this round NDCs should be assessed based on their ability to drive shortterm action aligned with system transformations toward prosperous, resilient, and carbon-neutral societies. This requires a focus on emission drivers and adopting a long-term perspective.
- Key transformations expected to be addressed by robust country strategies are: (1) transformations to support a relentless decrease of fossil fuel use, (2) transformations to support land use as a carbon sink and for non-CO2 agriculture emissions reduction, (3) strategies to address inertia across infrastructure and technology, governance and institutions, lifestyle and behaviours, and (4) considerations of the socio-economic effects of the energy/ecological transition.
- Ultimately, NDCs should not be seen only as ambition commitments with emission targets but also as strategic instruments that do address the current political economy of a country thanks to the explicit and granular mention of transformative action as a useful basis for domestic policymaking and fostering international collaboration.
- The focus on transformations can reinforce a sense of constructive differentiation across countries, allowing them to pursue strategies that are beneficial for their economy while supporting climate ambition (and keeping them accountable to those) and providing a clearer picture of global transformation trends—particularly across G20 countries.
- By prioritizing achievable, conservative targets to avoid overcommitment, countries may limit their ambition, with their capacity to act influenced by the signals they send, ultimately shaping expectations and driving investments. Instead, focusing on transformations would strengthen global action and ambition by sending critical signals to economic actors, shaping actions and global cooperation.
