Passenger transport decarbonization in emerging economies: policy lessons from modelling long-term deep decarbonization pathways

Abstract

Reaching the goal of the Paris Agreement will not be possible without a deep decarbonization of the passenger transport sector. In emerging economies experiencing rapid economic growth and social transformations, and large-scale development of urban areas and associated infrastructure, opportunities and challenges exist when considering a broader set of mitigation options. In this paper, we apply the Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) approach to develop and report scenarios on the passenger transport sector in Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa. This approach supports an increase in the sectoral ambition of covering all drivers of change in transport mobility and facilitating collective comparison and policy discussions on the barriers and enablers of transitions. The scenario analysis illustrates that all four countries can achieve reductions in emissions per passenger kilometres of 59% and up to 92% by 2050 while meeting growing mobility needs. Lastly, the analysis identifies short-term policy needed to address barriers and promote enablers.