Presentation
This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Climate Agreement, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Addis Ababa Action Agenda. These milestones are being celebrated in a context where the prospects for both multilateral cooperation and successful and timely implementation of these initiatives appear increasingly uncertain. While these agreements differ in nature, they share two key innovations, which continue to evolve today. This Study analyzes the key innovations and assumptions underlying the 2015 multilateral environmental agreements, evaluates how they are weathering today’s multilateral storm, and reflects on the roles they are likely to play in the future.
Key Messages
- In a multipolar order marked by polycrises and geopolitical tensions, cooperation on sustainable development may evolve in different ways: 1) cooperation is limited to technical issues, avoiding more political and divisive questions; 2) political cooperation objectives are broad but mostly symbolic; or 3) climate and sustainable development regimes become entangled in geopolitical power struggles, exacerbating divisions. We observe growing recognition of the distributive conflicts inherent to climate change and sustainable development: they might benefit more from strategic alliances than from a non-punitive consensual framework.
- One of the key innovations of 2015’s agreements was the principle of universality. But as the prevailing perception is that promises have not been fulfilled, the North-South divide has re-emerged in a more complex and multifaceted form. We are now facing near deadlock, where the prospects for highly differentiated (in terms of obligations) and redistributive (social justice between countries) multilateral cooperation are even more remote than they were before COP21, despite the growing demand for such collaboration. Tangible progress on finance, perceived as a key element of the response to the differentiated responsabilities and redistributive expectations, will be critical in 2025, in particular in the framework of the Fourth Financing for Development Conference (FfD4) and in the discussions on the new wave of NDCs in the run-up to COP30.
- The innovation of a horizontal theory of change that sends signals to actors beyond the climate sphere has proven to be effective. The Paris Agreement’s ability to develop and disseminate concepts beyond States–such as the net zero goal, widely adopted by private and international actors despite recent backlashes notably in the US–is demonstrating its impact. However, this success raises new challenges, such as ensuring accountability for these commitments and the need for more precise signals to drive sector-level transformations.
