Un article de François Gemenne paru dans un numéro spécial de la revue Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, "Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications" (ed. Mark G. New, Diana M. Liverman, Richard A. Betts, Kevin L. Anderson and Chris C. West).
Présentation du numéro spécial [en anglais] :
"Papers in this themed issue provide an initial picture of the challenges facing a world that warms by 4°C or more, and the difficulties ahead if warming is to be limited to 2°C with any reasonable certainty. Across many sectors – coastal cities, agriculture, water stress, ecosystems, migration – the impacts and adaptation challenges at 4°C will be larger than at 2°C. In some cases, such as farming in sub-Sahran Africa, a +4°C warming could result in the collapse of systems, or require transformational adaptation out of systems, as we understand them today. The potential severity of impacts, and the behavioural, institutional, societal and economic challenges involved in coping with these impacts, argues for renewed efforts to reduce emissions, using all available mechanisms, to minimise the chances of high-end climate change. Yet at the same time there is a need for accelerated and focused research that improves understanding of how the climate system might behave under a +4°C warming, what the impacts of such changes might be, and how best to adapt to what are likely to be unprecedented changes in the world we live in."
Présentation de l'article [en anglais] :
"Massive population displacements are now regularly forecast as one of the most dramatic possible consequences of climate change. Current forecasts and projections show that regions that would be affected by such population movements are low-lying islands, coastal and delta regions, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper puts forward the hypothesis that a greater temperature change would not only affect the magnitude of the associated population movements, but also – and above all – the characteristics of these movements, and therefore the policy responses that can address them. The paper outlines the policy evolutions that climate-induced displacements in a 4°C+ world would require."
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