Cet article explore les connexions entre les trois principaux objectifs quantitatifs définis dans la contribution nationale (INDC) de la Chine soumise en amont de la COP21, soit : (1) atteindre le pic d'émissions de CO2 en 2030 au plus tard ; (2) réduire l'intensité carbone de 60-65 % d'ici 2030 ; (3) et porter la part des énergies non fossiles dans la consommation d'énergie primaire à 20 % d'ici 2030.
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2015.1124752
Résumé [en anglais] :
"China published its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC on 30 June 2015. In this document, China promised to reach its CO2 emissions peak no later than 2030, reducing its carbon intensity by 60–65% by 2030, relative to the 2005 level, and to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 20% by 2030. Using a simple method and official data, this article aims to explore the linkages among these three targets. First, it shows that as long as China achieves its 2030 non-fossil fuel target, its carbon emissions peak can be attained prior to 2030. Second, it provides a panoramic view of the link between carbon intensity and non-fossil fuel targets with different levels of GDP growth rate and energy elasticity. This article also presents further conclusions based on this finding: first, that a GDP carbon intensity target may help to control the absolute level of the carbon emissions peak, but it could be inconsistent with the development of non-fossil fuel power; and second, that a GDP energy intensity objective, together with a non-fossil fuel target, is necessary to ensure target coherency."
