Presentation
Ukraine's possible accession to the EU is already causing apprehension among many agricultural players, who fear competition from Ukrainian products within the common market. Against this backdrop, this Study looks at (i) the need for reform of the Common Agricultural Policy and the European budget in the event of Ukraine's accession, (ii) the issues at stake for the European and Ukrainian agricultural sectors in the event of enlargement, and (iii) the political balances that could result within the EU.
Key Messages
- Ukrainian agriculture is structured around three models, which do not perform the same functions or have the same environmental impact:
- Polyculture breeding micro-farms ensure the country's food security;
- Capitalist farms dominate the production of cereals and oilseeds for export, and are the main source of foreign currency for the authorities;
- Family farms, which account for more than half of the country's agricultural enterprises, are now threatened by the concentration of entrepreneurial agriculture in Ukraine.
- In addition to the benefits of integration into the common market and access to CAP subsidies, potential accession to the EU represents a number of challenges for Ukraine—political, administrative, logistical and economic—which will have to be met in parallel with its reconstruction. Among other things, it will speed up the process of bringing Ukrainian agricultural production up to European standards. These dynamics should help shape the future Ukrainian agricultural sector.
- For the EU, the prospect of Ukraine's accession is exacerbating already perceptible points of tension, including:
- The size and distribution of the EU budget;
- Potential far-reaching reform of the CAP;
- The capacity of the European agricultural sector to cope with the inflow of duty-free Ukrainian agricultural products.
- In the event of Ukraine's accession to the EU, the consequences for European agriculture and the political balance within the EU would mainly be structured by three ongoing dimensions:
- The structure of Ukraine's post-war agricultural sector and, consequently, the country's reconstruction choices, as the war caused considerable damage to this sector;
- The conditions set out in the accession treaty;
- The reforms adopted by the EU to prepare for enlargement: institutional operating rules, the MFF and the CAP.
