Presentation
Ukraine's possible accession to the EU is already causing apprehension among many agricultural players, who fear competition from Ukrainian products within the common market. Against this backdrop, this Study looks at (i) the need for reform of the Common Agricultural Policy and the European budget in the event of Ukraine's accession, (ii) the issues at stake for the European and Ukrainian agricultural sectors in the event of enlargement, and (iii) the political balances that could result within the EU.
Key Messages
- Ukrainian agriculture is structured around three models, which do not perform the same functions or have the same environmental impact:
- Rural households ensure the country’s food security;
- Large agricultural enterprises dominate the production of cereals and oilseeds for export, and represent the main source of foreign currency for the authorities;
- Family farms, which account for more than half of the country’s commercial producers, are now threatened by the concentration of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine.
- In addition to the benefits of integration into the common market and access to European programmes, including the CAP, eventual EU membership represents a number of challenges for Ukraine–political, administrative, logistical and economic–which will have to be met in parallel with its reconstruction. Among other things, it will speed up the process of bringing Ukrainian agricultural production up to European standards. And these dynamics should help shape the future Ukrainian agricultural sector.
- For the EU, the prospect of Ukraine’s accession exacerbates pre-existing points of tension, including:
- the size and distribution of the EU budget;
- a potential major reform of the CAP;
- the capacity of the European agricultural sector to cope with an influx of Ukrainian agricultural products exempt from customs duties.
- In the event of EU enlargement to include Ukraine, the consequences for European agriculture and the political balance within the EU would be mainly structured around three issues, which are currently being addressed:
- the structure of Ukraine’s post-war agricultural sector, which depends on its reconstruction policies, as the war has caused considerable damage to this sector;
- the conditions set out in the Accession Treaty;
- EU reforms, adopted in preparation for enlargement, pertaining to the institutions and decision-making mechanisms, the MFF and the CAP.
