Presentation
Based on numerous discussions with French agriculture professional bodies between 2022 and 2024, the study summarised in this Issue Brief proposes a retrospective and a business-as-usual scenario for three meat sectors in France up to 2035: poultry, pork and beef. The analysis considers simultaneously (i) the relationships within and between these three value chains; (ii) the domestic, European and global levels; and (iii) the opportunities and lock-ins resulting from the historical transformations of the three sectors.
Key Messages
- Between 1960 and 2024, meat became an increasingly standardized product, traded on increasingly open markets, making price competitiveness a major determinant of supply-demand balances.
- The three sectors studied experienced uninterrupted growth until the 1990s, supplying increasing domestic and global demand. This dynamic :
o was based on strong choices: maintaining family-based and diversified agriculture; low downstream integration and the importance given to cooperatives;
o was accompanied by: (i) significant territorial concentration, which was economically efficient but had a strong environmental impact; (ii) an increase in chicken consumption, to the detriment of beef; and (iii) the industrialization of the industry.
- Since 2000, French operators have been experiencing difficulties on the export and domestic markets (with differences between sectors). In the absence of new measures, a business-as-usual scenario to 2035 would lead to the following results:
o an increase in the supply-demand imbalance on the domestic market for all sectors, with the coverage rate falling from 98% in 2020 to 87% in 2035;
o increased dualization of the geography of production, to the benefit of the Grand Ouest region;
o an erosion of small and medium-sized structures, both for farms and industries: a 34% reduction in the number of livestock farms and 30% in associated jobs, as well as the disappearance of 20% of slaughtering and cutting facilities and 14% of agro-industrial jobs;
o overall environmental impacts: while national GHG emissions would fall by 15%, they would be virtually stable if imported emissions are included; nitrogen surpluses would remain high in the West despite efficiency gains; the loss of 18% of grassland associated with the decline in ruminant numbers would result in negative impacts on biodiversity and landscapes, a loss of CO2 stocks and increased water pollution.
- Discussing this business-as-usual scenario, which is undesirable in many respects, should serve to depolarize the debate and reframe the issues at stake. With this in mind, it is essential to analyze the risks and the distribution of winners and losers in order to explore other possible futures.
