Discussing the future of the beef, poultry and pork sectors through an innovative modelling exercise
Background and challenges
The French meat industry accounts for most of the added value created in the agricultural and agri-food sector. It uses, directly or indirectly, most of the biomass produced on the country's farmland, largely shaping its landscapes and territories. However, it is facing challenges on an unprecedented scale in the short, medium and long term, whether in economic terms (heightened European and international competition on the domestic market), social terms (an ageing population and increasing difficulty in taking over farms, changing food practices and societal demands) or environmental terms (climate shocks and risks to animal feed supplies, contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and safeguarding biodiversity).
Objectives and methodology
In partnership with AScA, Solagro, I4CE and Le Basic, IDDRI is leading a project on the just transition of France's three main meat sectors, namely pork, beef and poultry, based on the following three components:
- development of a modelling chain representing farms, agri-food industries and dietary practices, combining economic and physical equilibrium;
- use of this modelling system for a series of forward-looking workshops with the three inter-professional bodies (Inaporc, Interbev, Anvol) and the three technical institutes (Ifip, Idele, Itavi) concerned;
- contributing to public debate through studies and events.
The publications planned as part of the project include:
- a retrospective of the three sectors since the 1960s and a business-as-usual scenario for 2035, i.e. a plausible future in the absence of any major change of direction;
- a food transition scenario, designed to explore the ways in which dietary practices relating to meat consumption are changing;
- a set of contrasting scenarios, looking at possible futures for the three French meat sectors selected.
